Archive for dollar yen

Yen to Dollar 6 May 2010

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

Dollar vs Yen Chart 6 May 2010

The dollar yen continues to struggle higher but without any great conviction at present with yesterday’s down candle symptomatic of this lack of momentum at present.  However, the low of yesterday did find some support from the 9 day moving average and this pattern appears to be continuing in early trading today with the pair failing to sell off sharply as a result.  The 40 day moving average is perhaps the key technical indicator for the yen to dollar pair at present having provided a solid barrier to any short term pullback over the last few weeks and this is currently residing in the 93 price area which should provide a cushion in the event of a further fall.  Longer term the outlook remains mildly bearish with the weekly chart reinforcing this view, particularly given the level of support from the 9 week moving average.  However, we are now running into serious price congestion between 95 and 100 and only some sustained momentum will drive the pair higher and through this congested region.  Should we achieve 100 and above in due course then the ensuing rally could develop into a longer term trend, particularly if we clear the 200 week moving average which is currently sitting at 104.  The price action this morning suggests that bullish sentiment remains in place at present with a relatively deep test in early trading.

You can catch up with the fundamental news for the US at my weekly newsletter while Japan is still closed for the Golden Week celebrations.

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Dollar vs Yen – Daily Chart Analysis 18th March 2010

Thursday, March 18th, 2010
usd vs jpy daily candle chart

USD vs JPY Daily Candle Chart - 18th March 2010

The yen to dollar currency pair continued to trade sideways yesterday in a very narrow trading range as we approach the end of the Japanese accounting period on March 31st , with the forex pair range-bound between 90 and 91 as a result. As always with any period of consolidation, this is generally followed by a sharp breakout which we can expect to see once the year end has passed, and the question of course is whether this will be to the upside or the downside!  The only technical clues we have at present are those provided by the 200 day moving average, which to date have proved to be a significant barrier to any potential test higher, as we saw in early January and again in mid-February, with the shorter term moving averages providing little in the way of guidance due to their tight bunching in the 90 price region. Any move to the  downside will of course be countered by the Bank of Japan, who will intervene should begin to approach the 85 price handle, last seen in December 2009. Short term trading in the dollar yen is very risky at the moment, and the better bet is to wait for longer term trading opportunities which should have a better chance of success, once the current sideways consolidation has broken down, and we have a new price trend to trade. The key will be the 200 day moving average above, and only a break and hold above both this, and the 93.50 price area will indicate a strong move to the upside, while any break below 88.50 will indicate a further test lower, which will of course be supported by the BOJ in due course, forcing the currency higher as a result.

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Analysis Yen Dollar 25 Feb 2010

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Dollar vs. Yen Chart 25 Feb 2010

Last week’s failure by the yen to dollar pair to breach the 200 day moving average proved to be a key turning point with the pair reversing sharply lower this week and once again breaking below all four moving averages.  This price action mirrors that of early January where an attempt to rally was promptly snuffed out by the 200 average. Yesterday’s close below all three short term averages reinforces this bearish sentiment which has continued in both overnight in Asia and in this morning’s early London session as we now approach the 89 price handle once again.  A break and hold below this level will signal a deeper move and should we start to approach anywhere around 85 then expect to see an intervention from the BOJ as a result.

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Dollar Yen News

Yen To Dollar – Daily Chart 9th February 2010

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010
Yen USD daily candle chart 9th february 2010

Dollar vs Yen - USD/JPY Candle Chart 9th February 2010

The yen to dollar yen pair continue to prove an extremely difficult currency pair to trade, as this key forex pair remain range bound between 94 to the upside and 85 to the downside as the struggle between the two safe haven currencies continues unabated. The mid January breakout that was initially signalled on the 7th January last month, failed to materialise, and was subsequently seen as a fake out, with the 200 day moving average providing the barrier to any move higher on the daily chart. Subsequently we have seen the currency pair slide lower once again, with a return of US dollar strength being counterbalanced by falling equities and a preference for risk averse investors to look towards the Japanese yen rather than the US dollar. In recent weeks the short term moving averages have played an increasingly important role with the high of each day finding strong resistance both from the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, with the 40 day moving average adding further to the short term bearish picture, with Thursday’s wide spread down candle breaching all three averages once again. As with many of the major forex pairs yesterday’s thin news saw a day of sideways price action, with little movement from a narrow trading range, with the candle simply confirming the previous day’s doji cross indicating indecision in the market. The key to the longer term ofcourse is the likley response of the BOJ to any further strengthening in the Japanese yen, with 85 now clearly defined as the pain threshold for the currency pair. In the short term we may expect to see a small bounce higher given the doji signal of Friday, and with little meaningful news this week, coupled with a national holiday on Thursday, further sideways price action seems likely, so my suggestion for trading this pair is to look for short term intra day trades to the long side.

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Analysis Yen Dollar 27 Jan 2010

Wednesday, January 27th, 2010

Dollar vs. Yen Chart 27 Jan 2010

Following the tweezer top reversal candle pattern of earlier in the month, the dollar yen chart pair has continued to slide lower, once again moving below all three of our short term moving averages (9,14 & 40 day) as well as the 200 day,  and edging dangerously back towards the price level at which an intervention from the Bank of Japan will become almost inevitable once again. With this level now firmly established at USD85.00, any potential move backwards towards this price point will see the BOJ step in to ensure that any further strength in the Japanese yen is snuffed out very quickly.  However, it is interesting to note that any intervention to date has been short lived, with the move higher petering out within a few weeks, indicating once again that whilst no central bank can fight the market on its own, the BOJ’s willingness to allow the Yen to weaken had more to do with the fact that the Nikkei has been falling thereby encouraging foreign investment.  However, with the technical picture looking bearish as the 9 day moving average moves below the 40 day average, expect further moves lower in the short term (especially if the Nikkei continues to decline), with the prospect of a sudden and sharp move higher as we move into the high 80’s price points and lower.

All the fundamental news for Japan has centred on the BOJ meeting at which rates were kept on hold and the only change was the Bank’s comments that higher oil prices would have an effect on Japan’s deflation problems.   Meanwhile markets are waiting for the FOMC statement this afternoon as well as Obama’s State of the Union Address & Geithner’s appearance before Congress to explain the AIG bailout.

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Analysis Yen Dollar – Dollar vs Yen Chart 12th January 2010

Tuesday, January 12th, 2010
Dollar vs Yen Chart - Daily Analysis 12th January 2010

Dollar vs Yen Chart - Daily Analysis 12th January 2010

Yesterday’s candle on the yen to dollar daily chart ended the trading session as a doji with a narrow spread and wicks to both top and bottom, suggesting an indecisive market that is now looking for some direction in the 92 to 93 price region.  The rally of the last few weeks, which was triggered by an intervention by the Bank of Japan towards the end of November, now appears to have temporarily run out of steam at the 93.50 price point where we have a neat tweezer top configuration of candles which is duly delivering a downwards trajectory today.  This reversal may well be short lived as we now have deep and sustained potential resistance immediately below which should provide the base required for a continuation in the recent rally, and rest assured should we see the yen show any signs of strengthening we can guarantee the BOJ will step in once again. With the daily price having broken both the 9 and 14 day moving averages the 40 day moving average will be key in dictating the strength (or otherwise) of any fall, and to the upside a break above 93.50 is now the key level for a move higher.

With only the US trade balance figures due today (which are expected at -34.9bn, worse than previous) all we can expect in this pair is some rather desultory sideways price action.

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