Archive for Yen To Dollar Weekly Chart

Yen To Dollar Weekly Chart – 16th March 2009

Monday, March 16th, 2009
Yen Dollar Weekly Candle Chart - 16th March 2009

Yen Dollar Weekly Candle Chart - 16th March 2009

The indecision in the market that I mentioned on Friday is clearly evident in the weekly candle chart which closed with a long legged doji midway between the 9 week and 40 week moving average.  The high of the week failed to match the previous week’s high suggesting that we are now entering a week with a bearish tone.  With little in the way of Japanese fundamental news on the economic calendar today apart from the Tertiary Industry Activity late tonight it is difficult to see where today’s price action is going to come from.

As I said several times last week in order to see any bullish trend continue we need to see a break above 99.80 and certainly beyond the 100 dollar mark and should this happen this week then we may see a resumption in the bull move.  However, my instinct at the moment is that we may see a further fall this week and my suggestion would be to attempt small short positions selling on any uptrend in the daily chart.

All the latest live prices and live currency charts are available along with the latest currency news.

Yen to Dollar – Weekly Candle Chart 9th March 2009

Monday, March 9th, 2009
Yen Dollar Weekly Chart - 9th March 2009

Yen Dollar Weekly Chart - 9th March 2009

As it’s a new week, I’ve taken the weekly chart in order to provide a different perspective on our trading for this week. As I mentioned last week, my long term trade was stopped out, so I am now looking to re-enter the market at some point, and as a general rule, I use the weekly charts for direction and the daily charts for entry and exit points. So what is the weekly chart for the dollar yen telling us at the moment. Well firstly, we have had three weeks of gains so it would not be a surprise to see a reversal this week with some profit taking following the strong move upwards, a view which might be confirmed once we start to approach the resistance level directly ahead in the $99 region. Indeed if we look at last week’s candle, the highest price of the week bounced off this area in a failed attempt to move through and on to the next target level. Whilst this is only a small area of resistance, it is there nonetheless, and we need to keep this in mind. Now the final issue is the 40 week moving average which is sitting just ahead, and again this could cause a reaction if prices fail to penetrate this average. So, having considered all the various aspects in detail, what are my thoughts – well in simple terms I would take a wait and see approach at the moment, as once we are clear this level, then there little short term resistance ahead, with the prospect of a move up through the $100 and beyond.

My suggestion ( and my own decision) is therefore to wait and see – if prices do move above the current level, and cross the 40 week moving average, then I will start to look at an entry in the daily chart, buying on any short term reversal or dip. As always all the other news is covered for you on the live economic calendar, with the live news feed providing the latest information. The fundamental news releases are also covered daily in the latest currency news video which is updated three times a day. Finally if you are looking for help in finding or choosing an ECN broker, please just follow the link for more details. All the latest prices are now available on the live currency charts.

Dollar Yen – 2nd March 2009

Monday, March 2nd, 2009
Dollar Yen Weekly Candle Chart - 2nd March 2009

Dollar Yen Weekly Candle Chart - 2nd March 2009

The breakout to the upside that we saw two weeks ago, continued last week with strong momentum in the volume, and a wide spread up candle on the week, which provided significant trading opportunities on an intra day basis. As I mentioned some time ago, I entered the market with a long position some weeks ago, and am now waiting for an exit signal in the weekly chart before closing out. With prices now having crossed both the 9 week and 14 week averages, there is nothing in the charts at present to suggest any short term reversal, but after such a strong rally in prices last week, it would not be a major surprise to see some profit taking in the early part of the week, and as a result I have tightened my trailing stop loss to the $95.20 region. My initial target for the trade was $98.50 with a longer term of the pair breaching $100 again in the next few weeks, and with the 9 week and 14 week averages now crossing this could be achieved sooner rather than later. As always I would suggest using the daily charts for you entry and exit points.

The main fundamental news comes this afternoon from the US in the form of the ISM manufacturing data, with a forecast of 34.0 against a previous of 35.6. This is a survey is conducted amongst 400 purchasing managers, and provides a leading indicator for the health of the economy with a figure below 50 showing an economy in contraction, and above this number in expansion. If the actual is better than forecast, then this is generally good for the home currency, in this case the US dollar. All the latest economic news is available in the economic calendar, and for the latest prices, please just check the live currency charts, along with the live news, or check with your ECN broker.

The short term and medium term outlook is bullish, and the long term is sideways.

Yen to USD Weekly Update – 23rd February 2009

Monday, February 23rd, 2009
Dollar Yen Weekly Candle Chart - 23rd February 2009

Dollar Yen Weekly Candle Chart - 23rd February 2009

Last weeks wide spread up candle, suggests that the uptrend is likely to continue this week, following the breakout from the sideways price action of the last few weeks, with prices now above both the 9 week and 14 week moving average. There is little resistance directly ahead on the weekly chart, so there is nothing to suggest that prices will not continue their upwards move for the short to medium term, and my initial price target for the move is around the 95.50 region initially. If prices reach this area then we could see a move back to $98 and above. The last 9 weeks have provided a solid support for a move higher which provides us with some protection in the event of any reversal, and stop losses should be placed below this area for the time being, and only moved above when we reach the $95 region and above to lock in profits.

The fundamental news out this week in Japan is all very limited in the impact they have on the markets, starting this evening with the Monetary Policy Meeting minutes which provide a detailed record of the BOJ Policy Board’s most recent meeting, offering  in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. At around the same time on Tuesday we have the Trade Balance figures which in essence are the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. This is the seasonally adjusted data , not to be confused with the non-seasonally adjusted number reported by some news agencies. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported and the forecast is for -0.49 against a previous of -0.15. If the actual is better than forecast, then this is generally good for the home currency, in this case the Japanese Yen.

Thursday sees a whole raft of numbers being released including Manufacturing PMI, Household Spending, Tokyo Core CPI, National Core CPI, Unemployment Rate and Preliminary Industrial Production. All of these will have some effect, but are not considered major indicators although last time round we saw the Tokyo Core CPI move the market significantly.More details can be found on the economic calendar for the week, and the US dollar fundmanetals are covered on the euro to dollar site for you.

My suggested trades for the short to medium term is for long positions with a stop loss below the previous support level at $88 with a view to moving this up to lock in profits in the medium term.

Yen to Dollar – Weekly Candle Chart 16th February 2009

Monday, February 16th, 2009
Yen To Dollar - Weekly Candle Chart 16th February 2009

Yen To Dollar - Weekly Candle Chart 16th February 2009

Last week’s candle was interesting, not because it has given us a clear signal, but more because it has provided the first sign ( a small difference I know, but important nevertheless). Firstly the closing price on the week closed above both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages. Secondly the price fall was reversed during the week, with the close above the previous week’s close. Finally the lowest price on the week failed to penetrate below the previous week’s low. Whilst we never trade on the strength of one candle, all this would suggest that we are perhaps seeing the first in a series of higher prices for the yen to dollar currency pair, with a possible move back to the first resistance area at $93.50. As this is a holiday in the US today, I would suggest waiting until tomorrow for any signals in the daily chart in order to look for an entry point for the trade.

On the fundamental front we have a tentative meeting of the Bank of Japan scheduled for Thursday this week, and remains tentative until the press conference begins. This is one of the main ways that the Bank of Japan uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation, and clues regarding future monetary policy, and is therefore eagerly awaited by the markets. All the other news for the dollar yen this week is in the US, and details can be found on the euro to dollar site.

The short term outlook is sideways, the medium and long term is bullish.

Dollar Yen – Weekly Chart 9th February 2009

Monday, February 9th, 2009
Dollar Yen - Weekly Candle Chart 9th February 2009

Dollar Yen - Weekly Candle Chart 9th February 2009

Last week’s candle for the dollar yen, has at last provided some respite from the remorseless sideways movement of the last few weeks with a sharp move up on Thursday, leaving us with a wide spread up bar on the week. The closing price on Friday penetrated the 9 week moving average, but not the 14 week,  so proving little in the way of a confirmed direction for the longer term as we need to see clear evidence that this is a sustained move and not simply a temporary reversal. There is little fundamental news for the Japanese Yen this week and like many other currencies the pair will be dominated by any news from the G7 meeting taking place in Rome at the end of the week.  The US dollar fundamentals are explained on the euro to dollar site.

My suggestion for your longer term trades on the dollar yen would be to await and see – one swallow does not make a summer! My own view is that we are likely to see a retest of the $93 region with a possible move back up to $95 and above in the next few weeks, but I personally I am waiting on the sidelines at the moment for a much clearer signal to appear showing bullish intent, before opening a long term position. At the moment we simply have more sideways movement on the chart, and until this changes and we have a confirmed trend in place, then I am taking a wait and see approach.

The short term outlook is sideways, the medium to long term is bullish.