2009 March | yen to dollar

Archive for March 2009

Yen To Dollar – Daily Candle Chart 31st March 2009

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Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

Yen Dollar Daily Candle Chart - 31st March 2009

Even as the markets awaits possibly the most important item of fundamental news on the economic calendar relating to the Japanese economy, Japan’s Q1 Tankan large manufacturers business conditions survey, to be released Apr 1, is forecast to tumble to -55 from -24 in Q4 of last year. A decline to such a level would be the lowest since Q2 of 1975 and represents the biggest quarterly fall since the index was first introduced in 1974. The global economic slowdown is biting hard into Japan’s export led economy and the decline in exports has set new records every month since late 2008. The latest -49.4% year on year plunge in Japan’s exports for the month of February does not bode well for Japanese growth this quarter after Japan’s GDP contracted at a -12.1% annualized pace in Q4 of last year.

From a technical perspective we are continuing to a sideways consolidation with yet another failed attempt this morning to break out above the $99 region which is now providing stubborn resistance to any move higher, and with the Tankan survey being reserved tonight coupled with the Japanese year end my advice remains the same which is to stay out of this pair until after these events. In the meantime you can keep up to date with all the latest live currency charts, latest currency news and fundamental news by simply following the relevant links. If you are looking for an ECN broker or fx broker, then just click on the relevant link for more details.

Yen To Dollar – Daily Candle Chart 30th March 2009

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Monday, March 30th, 2009

Dollar Yen - Daily Candlestick Chart 30th March 2009

Friday’s down bar in the yen to dollar pair once again confirmed the strong resistance now built up just below the $99 region with yet another failure to breach this level adding to a long list in the last few weeks. This region is now extremely strong from a technical perspective and was given added significance this morning by the wide spread down bar formed in early trading which has now penetrated both the 9 and 14 day moving averages. In addition the tweezer tops of the last 2 weeks (on the weekly candle chart) also contributed to the bearish picture now unfolding.

For any longer term bearing sentiment to continue we will need to see a break below the 40 day moving average followed by a breach of support in the 94.60 zone and thereafter the 93.70 area. If both of these event occur then we could see a deeper move into the consolidation area of the 89.50 to 91.50 region as the Japanese Yen strengthens – something which the Bank of Japan would not welcome especially following even weaker than expected preliminary industrial production figures which came in last night at -9.4% against a forecast of -9.1%.

This week sees some very important fundamental news in the economic calendar relevant to both the US and Japan and in particular on Tuesday for the Japanese Yen we have the quarterly Tankan Survey which is a leading indicator which I will discuss in tomorrow’s commentary. The remainder of the week is against the backdrop of the G20 summit in London, a raft of US fundamental data, topped off with the NFP on Friday and the closing of the Japanese year end this week.

My trading suggestion for today is to try and take advantage of the bearish momentum which is building by looking for trading opportunities in the shorter time frames, always remembering to sell into the market on any upbar (not a down bar) and to take profits off the table.

In the meantime you can keep up with all the latest live currency charts, latest currency news and fundamental news by clicking on the relevant links.

Yen To Dollar – Daily Candle Chart 27th March 2009

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Friday, March 27th, 2009

USD JPY - Yen Dollar Daily Candle Chart 27th March 2009

Well done if you managed to take some pips in yesterday’s up candle which once again closed the session at the strong resistance level of 98.74 which is proving to be a major barrier to any move higher despite all three moving averages suggesting a move higher is possible. Once again this morning in early trading we have seen prices retrace from this region and despite yesterday’s success trading the dollar yen is becoming a bit of lottery at the moment as we wait for Japan to settle their accounts for the fiscal year end book closing on 31st March. For those of you either using or are interested in Fibonacci and the stochastic indicator, analysts have been suggesting that the dollar yen pair has pushed over the Fibonacci and resistance line at JPY98.24/30, supported by a bull-cross in the stochastic study, 10-day momentum and now 5 & 21 daily moving averages.

From a weekly perspective the chart is beginning to look bearish with a tweezer top having formed in the last two weeks. However, given the above and next week’s ocean of fundamental news on the economic calendar all topped off with the G20 meeting in London it may be more prudent to step aside for today.

For the latest currency charts, full economic calendar, latest currency news and fundamental news just follow the relevant links.

Dollar Yen – Daily Candle Chart 26th March 2009

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Thursday, March 26th, 2009

Dollar Yen ( USD/JPY) - Daily Candle Chart 26th March 2009

Yesterday’s candle confirmed once again how strong the resistance is proving to be at the current level and whilst the closing price finished above all three moving averages it simply reinforced the sideways consolidation of the last few weeks. I can only reiterate my advice of this week which given the Japanese year end and fundamental news due out later today makes trading in this pair a bit of a lottery.

The fundamental news which may have some influence is centred on the unemployment claims which are expected to come in at 650k followed shortly after by the release of the GDP figures and I have covered these in more detail on the euro to dollar site. In addition we also have the Geithner effect which was in evidence across the forex market yesterday when Treasury Sec Geithner implied that the US dollar could lose its reserve status in the future. Today he is testifying before the Financial Services Committee on the financial regulation of the markets.

This evening sees three important released in Japan, starting with Tokyo Core CPI followed by National Core CPI and finally retail sales all of which are likely to have a significant impact on the dollar yen pair. Tokyo CPI measure the change in the price of goods and services (excluding fresh food) bought by Japanese consumer in Tokyo and the forecast is for a figure 0.4% against a previous 0.6%. If the actual is better than forecast then this is generally positive for the Japanese Yen. National Core CPI is released at the same time but these figures tend to be overshadowed by the Tokyo data set. The forecast is flat at 0%. The final set of figures is retail sales which is a measure of the change in total sales in the retail market and is a primary measure of consumer spending and sentiment. The forecast is for a further fall to -3.6% against -2.4% indicating a worsening situation.

If you feel confident in trading today then you could try small long positions using the hourly charts for suitable entry and exit points as there is a slight bullish tone following yesterday’s candle with a long, lower shadow but be aware of all the issues outlined above.

For the latest live currency charts, latest currency news, fundamental news and economic calendar just click on the appropriate links.

Yen To Dollar – Daily Candle Chart 25th March 2009

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Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

USD/JPY - Daily Candlestick Chart 25th March 2009

Whilst yesterday’s wide spread up bar closed above all 3 moving averages it is interesting to note that once again the market has failed to clear the 98.75 region indicating that this is building into a very strong resistance area and therefore I would advocate extreme caution for two reasons. Firstly, as I have mentioned before we are now approaching the Japanese year end and are likely to see unusual and contradictory price moves in the particular currency pair. Secondly, a look at the monthly chart for the dollar yen suggests that March will close with a long legged doji which suggests that we are about to see a reversal from the rise in February and if this is the case then we could see the bearish tone reinstated during April. Given the above 2 factors I would suggest waiting until month end for any longer term trading. In the short term intra day trading is the order of the day using tight stop losses and short time scales.

As an example of a short term trading opportunity on the hourly chart last night in the evening session we had a strong bearish engulfing candle which would have yielded 50 pips in overnight trading. As a further example on the 10 min chart the hammer formed at 11.40 this morning is currently yielding around 25 pips with the last 6 candles all sitting above the moving averages on this timescale. It is these types of opportunities you will need to identify over the next few days in order to make some money from this pair.

To keep up to date with all the latest currency news, live currency charts, fundamental news or live news please just follow the appropriate links.

Yen to Dollar – Daily Candle Chart 24th March 2009

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Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

USD/JPY - Daily Candle Chart 24th March 2009

Yesterday’s cautionary note turned out to be more prophetic than even I expected with the dollar yen ending the day higher with a wide spread up bar closing just below the 9 day moving average, a trend we have seen continue this morning with a break above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages. This could be a precursor to a retest of the 99 region once again and given the Japanese end year factor combined with the fundamental news due out later tonight I would advise, once again, extreme caution. The bearish engulfing of last Wednesday seems to have run its course and given the last three days we could be in a further period of sideways consolidation once again. The two main items of fundamental news on the economic calendar are in the US with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner both testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on the AIG debacle. In the economic calendar this event has been red flagged and we could see market volatility following the statement in the question and answer session. The second item of news concerns the Japanese trade balance due to be released tonight with a forecast of -0.29T against a previous of -0.36T. These figures represent the difference between imports and exports and directly affect currency demand since importers of Japanese goods have to put for these in Yen. If the actual is better than forecast then this will be good for the Japanese Yen. Since early 2008 the figure has grown increasingly negative as Japan’s export led economy has faltered as the credit crisis has deepened and global demand fallen off a cliff. As an example throughout 2005 to 2007 the trade balance figures were positive and varied between 0.6 and 1.2.

Given the above I do not propose to offer any specific trading recommendation today for this particular pair. However, you can still check the latest currency news, latest prices on the live currency charts and all the fundamental news on the economic calendar by simply following these links. Finally I have published the COT index relating to Yen futures which are suggesting that the Yen will actually strengthen in the medium to longer term.

Bank of Japan latest news

Latest forecast for the USD/JPY

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Archive for March 2009

Yen To Dollar – Daily Candle Chart 31st March 2009

Yen To Dollar – Daily Candle Chart 30th March 2009

Yen To Dollar – Daily Candle Chart 27th March 2009

Dollar Yen – Daily Candle Chart 26th March 2009

Yen To Dollar – Daily Candle Chart 25th March 2009

Yen to Dollar – Daily Candle Chart 24th March 2009

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